Which lotto number should you pick?
Today’s post shows that there are no lucky lottery numbers. If you HAVE TO play the lottery, one thing that is worth remembering is to avoid picking consecutive numbers.
How have bank market shares changed in SA since the pandemic?
Today’s post assesses the extent to which new banks have gained market share in South Africa’s banking sector. New bank entrants have gained large numbers of customers in South Africa: Tyme Bank is reported to have gained almost 10 million accounts and Discovery Bank reportedly has over 2 million customers. However, market share gains for these banks have been much more modest when considering bank deposits and credit products.
National Population Pyramid for South Africa
The male-female population pyramid in South Africa historically showed a broad base, indicating a young population with high birth rates, but over time, it has become more column-like as birth rates have declined and life expectancy has improved.
Phillips curve steepening post pandemic in SA
In a recent speech, the Reserve Bank Governor suggested that disinflation costs in South Africa have generally been low on account of SARB’s credibility and quality of communication. Such a view is built on the idea that the ‘Philips curve’ is relatively flat in South Africa and inflation expectations are well anchored.
World Rugby Rankings over time
South Africa has strengthened its position as the top-ranked team after a narrow 31-27 win over New Zealand last weekend, further widening the gap over second-placed Ireland. Despite their strong performance, the All Blacks remain in third place following this defeat.
Does SARB follow the Fed?
Every time the Federal Reserve changes its policy rate economists speculate about whether the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will follow suit. Today’s post shows that the coincidence between US and SA monetary policy has varied a lot over time. The Fed tightened earlier in the lead up to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and cut earlier immediately following it.
Which car brands have the lowest mileage
When browsing second-hand cars online, certain brands consistently hold their value better, often reflected in lower mileage and higher prices compared to others.
Bank-level interest rate pass-through in South Africa
Our paper that assesses the degree to which changes in the SA policy rate are passed through to individual bank lending and deposit rates is now available in the Journal of Macroeconomics. We show that rate hikes are typically passed through to mortgage interest rates completely while rate cuts are not.
Provincial unemployment rates in SA over time
Provincial unemployment rates in South Africa show significant variation. The North West maintains the highest broad unemployment rate, of around 54%, while the Western Cape’s rate is around 27%, far below the national average of 42.6% in Q2 2024. These disparities underscore persistent regional economic challenges, driven by structural factors unique to each province.
Macroeconomic implications of Basic Income Grants
There have recently been calls on government to extend social relief of distress grants or to institute a basic income grant. These slides summarise our SA Journal of Economics paper that quantifies the costs and benefits of expanding social transfers in South Africa: The macroeconomics of establishing a basic income grant in South Africa. You can also access the paper here (open access).
SA city house prices vs CPI
Statistics SA’s estimates suggest that Cape Town is the only major metropolitan area to have recorded real house price increases since 2010.
SARB wage growth vs Headline inflation
The SARB released its annual report yesterday. It shows that over the last year, the Governor’s total pay package rose by 10.2%. Headline CPI inflation averaged 5.5% since 2002, while SARB average wages grew at 8.3% per year (or 8.7% if benefits are included). Average wages are just shy of R1.2 million (excluding medical and pension benefits), or almost R1.5 million including benefits.
