Today’s post by Tashen Naidoo compares SARB’s January MPC projections for each year against the final (current) GDP growth outcomes. For 2025 to 2027, SARB projects growth to be higher than it has been over the preceding three years. We previously showed that SARB’s CPI forecasts are much more accurate that its’ GDP forecasts (which are only published at an annual frequency) and that its projections for current year and next year South African GDP growth (as projected at the time of the March Monetary Policy Committee Statement) have been more optimistic than those of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) (as published in April). The IMF’s inflation projections have been slightly less accurate for the current year and one-year ahead, on average.
