Historical estimates of potential growth

The SARB has progressively lowered its estimates of potential growth since it first began publishing its estimates. The same is true of the IMF’s view of the economy’s underlying trend of growth (backed out below using their real time output gap and real GDP estimates). However, the IMF’s latest projections (published February 2022) imply a slightly more pessimistic view of the potential growth rate of the economy than that of the SARB.


Note that the IMF and SARB estimates are based on slightly different definitions, with the SARB estimate reflecting a medium term concept, whereas the IMF estimate presented here is their implied estimate of the underlying trend growth of the economy at a particular point in time.



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