The IMF WEO for April 2024 suggests that South Africa is strongly impacted by shocks in emerging markets (with the highest estimated average contribution from G20 Emerging Markets (EM) among the G20). The IMF estimates that South African firms are particularly prone to revenue losses from increased import competition (input linkages, blue bars). Whereas firms in countries with large positive red bars (output linkages) tend to benefit from a pickup in G20 EM growth, South African firms exposed to G20 EM demand do not see revenue rise. This reflects South Africa’s low integration into global value chains.
