Confidence indicators are only weakly contemporaneously correlated with business cycle phases in South Africa, and not highly correlated with GDP growth outcomes in South Africa. SARB’s coincident and leading indicators are also not highly correlated with the business cycle or other cyclical macroeconomic dynamics.
You can read our Policy Paper on forecasting economic downturns in South Africa using leading indicators and machine learning for more details here.
Compiled by Jurgens Fourie
