A new paper by Cavallo, Llamas and Vazquez uses scraped daily data of two large U.S. retailers to show that the 2025 tariffs have affected both imported and domestic goods, suggesting broad pricing and supply chain spillovers. After the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada
and Mexico and 20% tariffs on Chinese goods, saw prices of both imported and domestic goods increase by around1.2 percentage points in March 2025. The results indicate that domestically produced goods in the affected categories experience price increases comparable to those of their imported counterparts, whereas domestic goods in unaffected categories show a more gradual rise in prices over time.
