Ahead of the release of the August CPI data, today’s post by Oliver Guest compares Codera’s CPI forecasts to those of SARB. We expect SARB will need to raise its CPI forecasts as significant administered price and government-related inflation is largely baked in for the next 12 months. Codera also sees upside risk to the outlook for core inflation relative to SARB’s projections. SARB forecasts higher quarterly core inflation than our model suggests in the near term, but expects core to converge to 3% in the long run, while Codera expects core will continue to rise over the next year.
Codera provides detailed activity, price, FX and fixed income analysis, nowcasts and customiseable scenarios. Contact us for a demo or to subscribe.
NOTE: Codera’s forecasts have been averaged over each quarter to align with the SARB MPC forecast frequency. Forecast date: 10 Sept 2025.
