Our estimate of South Africa’s potential growth has been revised up to just below 1.1%. Today’s post shows that the SARB estimates have moved closer to Codera’s over recent MPC meetings. SARB’s assumptions from the January 2026 MPC before the 2025Q4 data were released, assumed potential growth at 1.1% for 2025. However, the SARB’s assessment has been that the output gap for 2025 has been -0.2 percentage points as they projected 1.3% economic growth, compared to an outcome of 1.1%. We will publish updated estimates and comparisons once GDP for 2026Q1 is published today.
