We showed in an earlier paper (https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/sajeco/v89y2021i4p526-554.html) that there was some evidence of predictable seasonality in South African GDP data from 2016 onwards, with Q1 values typically lower than in other quarters. Repeating the analysis on recently revised GDP data, there appears to be less predictable seasonality in the quarterly estimates than before. Grouping GDP data by quarter, we show below that that the mean of each quarter between 1993 and 2015 is centred around the same value. For the period since 2016 (and excluding 2020Q2 and 2020Q3 on account of outliers associated with the lockdowns), Q4 values have been slightly higher than Q3 but there is no discernible residual seasonality.
Before revision
After revision
