The SARB’s baseline projections from September suggest an additional 100 basis points of rate cuts if inflation aligns with its forecasts. Given yesterday’s small downward surprise in October’s inflation, some have been arguing that there might be potential for more cuts than projected earlier. However, the MPC are forward-looking and how much they will ultimately cut will depend on their updated take on the neutral rate. Today’s post shows the number of months previous cutting cycles lasted. SARB’s current projection would make it the shallowest cutting cycle in two decades.
