Evidence-based policy requires high quality data and research. A key constraint to evidence-based policy is a lack of independent analysis. Much of the policy-relevant research that is produced by South African research institutions and think tanks is not independent, with funders playing a role in the topics considered and positions taken. Though there is a lot of high quality private sector analysis, this is usually not in the public domain.
Codera Analytics is private, independent and democratising access to data, analytics and policy research. We apply leading-edge frameworks to a range of economic and financial policy issues to answer the questions that matter to the South African public.
We are pleased to publish a new Policy Paper on Assessing Potential Trade Misinvoicing and Data Quality Issues in South African Exports.
- We show that the data suggest that there has been systematic under-invoicing of South African commodity exports.
- However, we also highlight data limitations that constrain accurate assessment of trade misinvoicing.
- The scale of possible misinvoicing is significant. If taken literally, our findings suggests substantial foregone mineral royalties for the South African fiscus. Our back-of-the-envelope estimate range between R30 to R50 billion for the period 2015-2024.
- Our estimates of foregone fiscal revenue suggest that investing in capacity to monitor trade misinvoicing would therefore be self-funding.
The paper is publicly available here.
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