Evidence-based policy requires high quality data and research. A key constraint to evidence-based policy is a lack of independent analysis. Much of the policy-relevant research that is produced by South African research institutions and think tanks is not independent, with funders playing a role in the topics considered and positions taken. Though there is a lot of high quality private sector analysis, this is usually not in the public domain.
Codera Analytics is private, independent and democratising access to data, analytics and policy research. We apply leading-edge frameworks to a range of economic and financial policy issues to answer the questions that matter to the South African public.
We are pleased to publish a new Policy Paper on changes in night lights in South Africa.
- Satellite data suggest very low growth in night light intensity across South Africa over the last decade and a decoupling from economic and population growth
- This sheds light on the implications of the collapse of state service delivery and South Africa’s decline in GDP per capita over the last decade.
- These results reveal a lack of densification in urban areas that contribute to higher transportation costs and reservation wages, and discriminate against job creation and efficient service provision.
- Our results also raise questions about the depth of the structural slowdown and the ability of traditional indicators to fully capture shifts in spatial economic vibrancy.
The paper is publicly available here.

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