Distribution of 8-digit CPI components in SA

Today’s post by Sinead Morrow shows that between 2009 and 2025, South Africa’s 8-digit CPI inflation showed a high degree of dispersion and positive skew, with most prices increasing moderately while a smaller set of items experienced sharp price spikes. This pattern reflects persistent supply-side shocks and structural bottlenecks, suggesting that headline inflation often masks substantial variation in consumer price experiences. For more on the implications of the statistical properties of inflation for the specification of the inflation target and appropriate conduct of monetary policy please see our  paper on the inflation targeting debate .

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