The South African Trade Uncertainty Index developed by Jacques Quass De Vos and draws inspiration from Caldara et al. (2020), but expands on search terms to be more relevant to the South African setting. It shows a much clearer spike in 2025 than other uncertainty indices for South Africa do (see here and here).
Since SA trade policy alone is not subject to much change, we include the following search terms:
- Trade uncertainty phrases: We match combinations of trade with uncertainty-related terms (e.g., “trade disruptions”, “trade tensions”).
- Ports problems: Covers potential mentions of Transnet failure, port delays, etc.
- Trade policy terms: These help us identify mentions of tariffs, duties, and other trade-related policies.
- Contextual search: Given a 15-word window, we attempt to match uncertainty and trade terms that fall near one another.
- AGOA concerns: uncertainty regarding expiration/renewal of AGOA were added.
