Today’s post by Lisa Martin compares historical surprises in major categories of government expenditure. The largest cumulative under-estimates of government expenditure pre-pandemic were in Higher Education and compensation of public employees (in the years immediately following the global financial crisis). There was also a notable under-estimate of provincial equitable share in Budget Review 2011. Post-pandemic, Treasury under-estimated future expenditure in many major spending categories, including on wages of public servants, debt service costs, transfers to households (which include social grants) and health. It is also noteworthy that government expenditure under-estimates greatly exceeded forecast errors on revenue estimates.
Codera is making it possible to automate sophisticated analysis of economic and financial data. Our EconData platform, for example, makes it easy to evaluate historic IMF, SARB and National Treasury forecast errors and data revisions.
