Does stable political tenure have labour market effects?

Evidence-based policy requires high quality data and research. We have shown in earlier blog posts that South Africa ranks towards the bottom of major economies in terms of the extent to which research is prioritised (here and here). The same is true for economic and policy research, both in terms of the quantity (here and here) and its quality and impact (here and here). Another constraint to evidence-based policy is a lack of independent analysis. Much of the policy-relevant research that is produced by South African research institutions and think tanks is not independent, with funders playing a role in the topics considered and positions taken. Though there is a lot of high quality private sector analysis, this is usually not in the public domain.

Codera Analytics is private, independent and democratising access to data, analytics and policy research. We apply leading-edge frameworks to a range of economic and financial policy issues to answer the questions that matter to the South African public.

We are pleased to publish a new policy paper by Jacques Quass De Vos investigating the labour market impacts of incumbent mayoral tenure in Cape Town. The paper suggests that a stable, single-party mayoral tenure in Cape Town may have raised the labour force absorption rate by between 2.3 and 5.5 percentage points over the period 2022–Q3 to 2026–Q1.

The paper is publicly available here.

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