We showed in an earlier post that the SARB has been using the word ‘uncertainty’ a lot more in its Monetary Policy Reviews (MPR) over the past two years — a sign that SARB judges the outlook to be highly uncertain.
Ahead of today’s release of the October MPR, today’s post with Jacques Quass De Vos compares two other market- and news-based monetary policy uncertainty measures for South Africa from Codera. Monetary policy uncertainty has been getting more news coverage over the last 18 month. But there has been less divergence between market pricing and the policy rate over recent history. On the other hand, we have showed in an earlier post that there has been a little more dissent among members of the Monetary Policy Committee in 2025 compared with the average since 2015, which is another simple measure of subjective monetary policy uncertainty.
