Underlying inflation and yesterday’s CPI outturn

As we have previously argued, Codera’s core inflation measure has been suggesting that it is too early to call the abatement of inflation pressures in South Africa. Not only has there has been more broad-based inflation pressure since 2019 than implied by the Statistics SA core measure of underlying inflation, these pressures have not diminished to the same extent in 2023. There has also been a noticeable divergence between the core measure that excludes food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel and energy (which has fallen) and the trimmed mean measure (which has spiked back up to over 5.5%).

Codera Blog Newsletter

Sign up to receive a weekly summary of our blog posts