Shifts in sovereign bond market rate expectations

There has been a lot of debate over divergences between central bank policy rate projections and market pricing this year. In this post, we use our term premium model to extract estimates of term premia and neutral rates for a selection of economies. Policy rates have risen in 2023 in most of the countries considered, except Chile. Our model suggests that 10-year term premia have risen in South Africa, Chile and Australia, but fallen in the UK, Mexico, Canada and New Zealand.  The market rates expected over the long-term have increased in the UK, Canada, the US and Mexico, but fallen in Australia.


For more details of the approach used see here and here.

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