While forecasting population growth is notoriously difficult, it is vital for planning public services and government budgets. In this post Jan-Hendrik Pretorius, we analyze how Statistics South Africa has revised its national population estimates and evaluate how closely initial projections aligned with subsequent data. By comparing historical vintages from 2016 to the latest releases, we track where demographics were underestimated (indicated by positive values). The old age cohorts have seen there largest upward revisions, sometime by over 30 percent.
