Net Migration

Statistics South Africa assumes net migration will total over 4 million by 2026 and that emigration by whites will total around 650 000 by then. 

It is difficult to judge whether South Africa’s net migration is large by international standards using available migration estimates. The figure below plots estimates from the United Nations for Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. While Australia has had consistently positive net migration, New Zealand and South Africa have had periods of meaningfully negative net migration according to UN data. The South African data features highly unrealistic dynamics in 2015/6 and do not align with the assumptions used by Statistics South Africa in its population estimates.

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