IMF vs Treasury South Africa Fiscal Projections

The IMF projects continuing South African primary and overall national and consolidated budget deficits out to 2025/6 and do not project that debt will stabilise.

National Treasury has treated Eskom debt relief ‘below the line’  (i.e. they did not include such spending in  the main budget, including it instead on the balance sheet of government). The IMF staff report, on the other hand, treats Eskom support  as  a capital transfer above the line (i.e. as an expenditure item). The IMF predicts continuing deterioration in South Africa’s fiscal position, with the debt to GDP projection approaching 85% by 2028/29 from around 68% in 2021/22. In a downside scenario with slower global growth, their projection is for public debt to reach over 92% in 2028.

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