G20 fiscal outlook

The cyclically adjusted primary budget balance is the budget balance (excluding debt service costs) that would be expected if the economy were to operating at its potential level (i.e. adjusted for the effects of the business cycle on tax revenue and government expenditure). Among G20 economies, the US and China stand out for the expected size of their cyclically adjusted primary deficits expected for 2024, while the countries with the highest expected levels of public debt to GDP are Japan, Italy and the US. The IMF expects that South Africa will run a small (-0.7% of GDP) cyclically-adjusted primary deficit, while gross debt is predicted to rise to over 75% of GDP (from around 71% this year).

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